Bill Warner’s Blog

 



January 25, 2010

It's About New Behaviors: A Proposed Playbook for Massachusetts Technology Companies

Second of two. 

In 1988 six months after I started Avid Technology, Inc., I got a $500K first round investment from Bill Kaiser of Greylock Management. This began a long and successful business partnership between Bill and I. Recently we got together for a day at MIT to think about the local economy, and how to encourage new behaviors to increase success in the region.

This post is meant to be a starting point, and is the result of discussions with Bill Kaiser, Tom Hopcroft, Steve O'Leary, Colin Angle, Brad Feld, John Cullinane, Paul English, Don Dodge, Will Herman, Dharmesh Shah, Jeffrey Bussgang and Scott Kirsner.  

Play Big Playbook
Version 0.2 January 25, 2010

So let's say we agree on the baseball scorecard, and that we agree on being tough on ourselves that "winning" by making a good return and becoming a division of a bigger company isn't good enough for our region to maintain and increase its leadership. But we all know that within each company, once the great deal is on the table, lots of factors take hold that will lead to a sale. So how do we operate well in advance of these "final" moments so the outcomes are different? How do we change our key behaviors?

I propose that we need a new playbook. The idea is to simply encapsulate the behaviors we want to encourage. Here goes. (your input is most welcome!)

Company Playbook

1. Start Small
- Playing big doesn't mean huge capital early on or huge teams.
- Make things that work and test them quickly.
- Be curious, try things.

2. Hire Tough
-too often we hire our friends, people we know.
-we have to be WAY tougher.
- Not to be confused with "demand amazing background and experience."
- Rather, hire those who are ready to rise to new heights. Demand that.

3. Lead Here
- Stay here and lead here.
- Build a global company from here.
- We can't build our ecosystem by being an outsource shop for distant companies.

4. Buy Smart
- Do acquisitions, but do them right.
- Avoid the big swinging "industry changing" acquisitions that usually go so wrong. 
   (and have hurt many of our local companies)
- Know how you'll integrate, and move fast and aggressively

(Add more here...this is just flavor of the plays in the playbook.)

Regional Playbook

1. Fund First Timers
- The great breakthroughs come from people doing it for the first time
- The great breakthroughs often come from those in their 20's
- Stop focusing so much on experience. 

2. More Mixing
- Encourage job movement. It's good for the economy
- Move the talent around. Stealing talent is healthy. Changing jobs spreads the talent wealth.
- Voluntarily avoid non-competes. Create social pressure not to have non-competes.

3. Awesome Angels
- We must dramatically improve our angel environment.
- More angels that can do $25K-50K investments quickly
- Recruit some local "Super Angels" similar to Ron Conway and others from California.

4. New Blood
- We need new blood, new talent, to rebuild our region
- Aggressively recruit from outside, especially California.

5. Push Each Other
- Create pressure to Play Big, to avoid moves that diminish us locally.
- Expect higher performance from your peers, from your superiors, and from your team.

6. Execute, Execute
- Get tough with getting things done right.
- No company can become a global leader if its ideas are great, but it's execution is spotty
- We need to build our expertise in operations, in sales, and in marketing. (how?)

7. Spread Success
- Make sure people know what's working. Get the word out.
- Share real stories in small groups. Have the winners teach others how to win.

(Add more here...this is just flavor of the plays in the playbook.)

This post and the previous one boil down to having a common language and using it to let us push each other to greater heights. The baseball scoring approach gives us the simple idea of Home Runs and Grand Slams, and most importantly, the idea that we have Home Run Candidates and Grand Slam Candidates that we owe it to ourselves to nurture to greatness, from their inception to global domination.

The idea of a simply stated playbook gives us a common language on the individual plays that go into making a great company and a great region. It helps us push each other. For example, regarding hiring: When someone says "I worked with him at my previous company and he did a good job," perhaps the "Hire Tough" moniker will pop into the meeting, and someone will say "that's not good enough. We need someone who's going to amaze themselves and us. Lets look harder."

I believe that we indeed need to look harder. At new ways to measure success, and at new ways to spur success. The good news is, as our behaviors change, so will our fortunes.

Please add your Play Big Playbook additions, suggestions, and modifications as comments below. I'll pull them together into a new pass at the playbook.

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January 25, 2010

It's About Leadership: A Proposed Scorecard for Massachusetts Technology Companies

First of two.

In 1988, six months after I started Avid Technology, Inc., I got a $500K first round investment from Bill Kaiser of Greylock Management. This began a long and successful business partnership between Bill and I. Recently we got together for a day at MIT to think about the local economy, and how to encourage new behaviors to increase success in the region.

This post is meant to be a starting point, and is the result of discussions with Bill Kaiser, Tom Hopcroft, Steve O'Leary, Colin Angle, Brad Feld, John Cullinane, Paul English, Don Dodge, Will Herman, Dharmesh Shah, Jeffrey Bussgang and Scott Kirsner.  
It's About Leadership: A Proposed Scorecard Massachusetts for Technology Companies

Sports are a wonderful metaphor for real life, because they encapsulate so many things that we know are crucial in business as well as on the playing field: Teamwork, leadership, talent, strategy, and hard work. All sports have one thing in common: A clear measure of the score, and an unambiguous knowledge of who has won and who has lost.

I believe that if we increase our talent pool, and increase our leadership expertise, then jobs, profits and revenues will follow. After all, just like any company, a region is really little more than the pool of great people that it contains.

But how do we increase our talent pool? And how do we increase our leadership role in the country and in the world? First, I believe we need a measurement of success that in the long run will translate to success in growing leadership and thus talent. I believe we have sold too many of our great companies, and we have put our national and global leadership at risk. Yes, we do have talented people here, but do we want to employ them as outsourced R&D for distant companies? What happens to our ability to recruit great talent when the jobs here are away from headquarters? Whose career has ever soared by working in an "outpost?"

I propose a scorecard that helps push us towards having companies locally run. It's a shorthand way of saying: "Play big." "Don't sell out." It's a way of saying "Lead here."

Since metaphors are made to be mixed, the scorecard comes from baseball, and playbook (next post) from football. The scorecard is a way to talk about success. My hope is that we might all agree on a common definition of the score, and use that to push ourselves to better performance and higher leadership.

Single
Any growing company that is selling a successful product.
This would mean any company that successfully reaches the market and serves a growing need.
Essentially, you're on base once you show that more and more people need and obtain your product.

Double
Any growing company with sales over $10M.

Triple
Any growing company with sales over $100M

Home Run
>1B market cap

Grand Slam
>10B market cap
Dominates its market; fast market growth

This is an extremely simple scorecard, with five levels separated by a factor of ten in sales, then a factor of ten in market cap. It gives us a way of naming what we have, and maybe what we don't have. More importantly, it lets us think in terms of "candidates" for greatness:

"Home Run Candidate" - This means a local company that could go pubic, and reach over a billion in market cap. Constant Contact and iRobot are examples.

"Grand Slam Candidate" This is a company that is probably already public, and could become an unchallenged global leader with over $10B in sales.
Akamai is an example.

Our Grand Slam Technology Companies

EMC
Raytheon
Thermo Fischer Scientific
(others?)

Establishing the Right Horizon Early On

I believe that we are selling our triples before they can be home runs, and selling our home runs before they can become grand slams. Within each company, this probably makes perfect sense. A great deal for the investors and for the current employees. But I believe that if we sell our triples and home runs, we forever eliminate the benefit that may have accrued had these companies topped their field as an independent company. No Grand Slams. Just divisions. I just don't think you can lead a region, let alone a nation and the world, with divisions.

Some of this is based on the horizon that companies establish early on in life. Think about how brash Amazon's goals were, and how doggedly they pursued them. The result is a Grand Slam of epic proportions. While Amazon may have had offers early on in life, it's high but focused goals would have precluded any early sale.

We will only get what we set out to get. Let's set our horizons boldly, but achievable. Let's design our work to result in Grand Slams that are based here. There are plenty of regions out there who will sell us their Triples and Home Runs if we can offer them a great price, and a ride around the bases.

Please add your Grand Slam Scorecard additions, suggestions, and modifications as comments below. I'll pull them together into a new pass at the scorecard

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January 10, 2010

Lifestyles of The Future Rich and Future Famous: A Look Inside the TechStars Boston (Actually Cambridge) Penthouse

Only one more day to apply! Deadline is January 11, 2010 at 11:59 pm!
The luxury of TechStars Boston is a well-kept secret. Our Cambridge location the top floor of a historic Central Square building (actually, it is historic...used to be the power company, back when electricity was invented.)
You enter though this door at 727 Mass Ave. The space used to be for the Kaplan people who run classes for cramming for things like SAT tests. How fitting that their space is being reused for people cramming for a big show just three months away.
To enter the hallowed halls of TechStars, you must know the code. If you are accepted for this year, you will, in fact, know this code. But wait, there's more.
Your penthouse accommodations have rooftop views. Gourmet food is nearby, as are many coffee houses and pizza places.
Modern conveniences include a spacious elevator that can comfortably fit two people if they eat lightly and are willing to get to know each other during the ride.
Last year's version of Shawn Broderick. (Taken before TechStars moved in.) Shawn has been upgraded for this year, with a new look, shorter hair, an occasional beard. He seems more relaxed, but I'm sure once things get going, we'll see that hair on fire look again.
As Shawn pointed out, the carpet came pre-stained. Perfect for an entrepreneurial hang out.
TechStars provides access to the latest technology.
Rooms really are big, and they have really high ceilings. Two or three companies share what used to be a classroom. They do learn from each other!
Are you ready to hang up your coats on these walls? You start in March when the weather is cold and forbidding. When you take the coat off the wall in June, you'll be basking in the warmth of new knowledge, new mentors, new friends, a great new pitch, a product well along, and a company on the rise.

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January 9, 2010

Small Money Can Buy Big Love: Why Buying 20x30" Enlargements is The Best Possible Way to Spend $25 (or better yet, $65)

I love photography. Have since I was six years old. But digital photography doesn't really exist. It only lives in the minds of our computers or iPhones. Real photography lives on the walls of the places you live and work. Real photography is analog. Real photography touches your heart because it envelops you, lives with you, and speaks to you, even when you're not beckoning it forward from from the digital depths of your devices.

So I say to you: Go out and buy giant enlargements! Big ones. Even huge ones. (And please, comment on this blog post when you get them!) A 20x30" enlargement costs less than an entree at a good restaurant. And they keep on giving and giving. And here's the amazing thing: You don't need perfect pictures for these great enlargements. You'll only look at them from a distance. Even when Shutterfly complains that your image doesn't have enough resolution (if, for example you cropped an image), go ahead and click "add to cart." You'll be amazed.

Photographs can and do capture love. You can buy photographs with money. Release your images from their digital bondage and have them explode on your walls -- in your garage, in your basement, in your family room, anywhere that you have room for some giant images. And consider spending a few extra bucks for fantastic mounting of your images on lightweight, but strong Gatorboard. (Nations Photo Lab can do this)

Note: Usually Shutterfly is less expensive than Nations, but check out Nations link below. They are offering 50% (!) off on enlargements, which makes a 20x30 cost only $14.50 for their top of the line professional metallic print, with color correction. These metallic prints just take your breath away, and they are gloriously glossy, compared to Shutterfly's matte. Also, Nations Photo Lab can go up to 30x40 (wow, that's two 20x30's next to each other). With mounting on black 1/2" gatorboard, that 30x40 would still be under $85. Now that's a lot of love! What a present that would be for a grandparent with a rather large wall waiting for imagery.

Nations Photo Lab (The vertical print on 1/2" gatorboard)

They are in Maryland, and ground shipping is plenty fast.
They are obsessive packers; the prints or boards arrive in perfect condition

Shutterfly: (The ones on the dining room table, and on the wall)

SHIP40 gets you free shipping for orders over $40. (buy two prints!)

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January 8, 2010

Calling Great Entrepreneurs: TechStars Boston: One Day Left to Apply; 8 Reasons To Jump In

Tower of Power - Shawn Broderick is the Executive Director of TechStars Boston

TechStars helps entrepreneurs turn their ideas into real companies, fast.

TechStars is now operating in three cities: Boulder, Boston, and Seattle. The Boston program begins March 2, 2010, and the application deadline is January 11, 2010 at seconds before midnight (how many seconds is not disclosed).

If you know a great team of early stage entrepreneurs, you should let them know about the Boston TechStars program.

Here's why I love TechStars and feel it is the right way to help early stage entrepreneurial teams: 

TechStars creates community between the 10-12 teams that are funded, and it creates community between the 50-70 mentors who spend time with the entrepreneurs to help them work out their idea. This dual-community building is very powerful, and creates real connections between entrepreneurs and the people who can help them, including a wide range of angel investors and technical advisors.

TechStars is immersive for the teams, and also for the mentors that get involved. Everyone is in the soup. You bond around building things, rather than talking.

TechStars is overwhelming in that it provides too much input from a wide range of people. Why is this good? It forces the entrepreneurs to follow their instincts while picking and choosing among the input that is coming at them. There is just no way to try and "thread the needle" between all the input. You have to be clear about what's important to you, and use the knowledge for your own goals.

TechStars is competitive. Hey, building things is fun, and TechStars does this on steroids. Each team is making things happen right away, and that spurs teams that might be behind to kick their own butts into gear.

TechStars forces you to get great at presenting. Again, its through help, input, repetition, competition and camaraderie. While public speaking is often people's worst fear, by the end of TechStars, it becomes one of their biggest strengths. I've seen people who were literally terrified to present transform themselves into smooth and confident presenters in three months.

TechStars teaches you to present from the heart. There isn't a single formula for the presentations. Each one is different and is based on the company and its founders. This resonates with potential investors

TechStars puts on a great show for investors. Each program ends with an Investor Day presentation. Last year in Boston, there were over 300 people at the event. The energy in the room at the Boston event was amazing. TechStars knows how to put on a good show. TechStars knows how to fill the room with qualified investors. And this creates enourmous pressure on the TechStars founders to rise to the occasion.

TechStars builds lasting friendships. I'm still working with companies from the first TechStars program in Boston. I've made some great friendships that will last.

And lastly: The TechStars Train is Leaving the Station! Tell people who should apply to get it done!

Some important links:

TechStars Application (Due Jan 11 for Boston:  http://www.techstars.org/apply/
TechStars Boston Mentors: http://www.techstars.org/mentors/boston/
TechStars Home Page: http://www.techstars.org
David Cohen (TechStars Founder) blog: http://www.davidgcohen.com/blog/
Brad Feld (TechStars Co-Founder and VC) blog: http://www.feld.com/wp/
A Ton of TechStars Boston Photos on Flickr: http://www.flickr.com/search/?q=techstars+boston

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December 20, 2009

"See The Heat" - I Love This Tool - Infrared Temperature Probe for under $25 - Awesome Gift That Keeps On Giving

Face it. Guys love tools. There's just nothing better than having the right tool for the job. But things get even better when the right tool for the job can see the invisible and instantly answer mysteries with cold, hard facts. I'm writing this post because this little probe has answered so many questions that it just deserves to move out of its obscure little place on Amazon. For $25, you can put an infrared temperature probe in your pocket and answer an amazing range of questions. Maybe a little late to get it for Christmas. But I'd print a picture and order one for a tool-loving friend or Dad.

It's a really simple device. It has a little infrared sensor on the front that looks like a clear LED. Aim it at something, press the button, and you'll get a reading of that surface. Note that his unit only measures wide surfaces. Fancier units have narrow beam sensors to pick up the temperature of far away items like a vent on the ceiling. This one will just measure the entire ceiling. Or, if you're close to something, it will measure its temperature instantly without having to touch it.
Master Cool Dual Temp (Infrared and Metal Probe)  ($39.19 on Amazon)  This is the one I have. But I hardly ever use the metal probe, so the $24.49 version may be just fine. But the probe looks cool.
Master Cool Infrared Only  ($24.49 on Amazon)
Here's a mystery that the probe answered definitively. Why does our bedroom seem colder than other rooms, when the thermostat in both rooms is set to 69? Let's see. Measure the wall below this electronic switch (this is a hint)
Now measure just above the electronic switch. Hmmm. That's 5 degree increase just due to the switch. And it doesn't matter if its on or off, this is a little X10 transmitter switch that runs all the time.
Sure enough, by the time the wall gets to the thermostat, it's 69 degrees, just like the thermostat is reading.
But the walls are reading about 65 degrees. So our little electronic wall switch has dropped our actual room temperature by 4 degrees by fooling the thermostat into thinking the room is warmer than it is.
Okay, here's another example, in another room that has high ceilings. Is the heat rising in this room, and would a ceiling fan warm it up by pushing that heated air down? Let's measure the wall. It's 64.9
Now aim up at the ceiling. Temperature is 63.9. Will a ceiling fan help? Nope. End of that question. That's what I love about this probe. It answers questions definitively, in seconds.
Today we are having hot water problems. There are two storage tanks and a pump between them. Is the circulating water hot enough? Nope. 89.8 isn't nearly enough. Yes, you can feel the pipe, but it's hard to feel small differences. I just went and measured the pipe again, (about an hour later) and now its 95 degrees. The hot water is recovering, but very slowly. Ah, facts.
Here, I use the metal probe to measure the tepid hot water. (I don't use this metal probe much, but I'll bet it would be great for measuring meat temperature.)
Another favorite - figuring out if radiant floor heat is working. This floor is at 77, and its clearly working. You can touch it and feel that its warm. But other times, the difference between floor heat being on or off is one or two degrees! This probe can see that easily, even if there is a carpet over the floor.

Well, that's a lot of answers for $25, ($39 for the dual probe version) and this little unit has never failed to unlock the mysteries of the infrared world. Reminds me of that old TV show "Just the fact, ma'am." This little probe delivers lots of facts, and lots of satisfaction.

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October 29, 2009

Photos and Kudos: @ScottKirsner, @Dharmesh and Russ Wilcox on Mass High Tech All-Star Awards #MHTallstars

Mass High Tech put on a very elegant awards show tonight, and I was excited to be there and see three people that I know win well-deserved awards. Scott Kirsner won for his work in fostering the local entrepreneurial community. I can attest to that, since over the years, Scott has provided many avenues for meeting people and getting the word out. I've attended the Nantucket Conference many years, and also met people by being a member of the Advisory Board. Scott has held numerous informal networking events, and his articles in the Globe have been a major outlet for high tech innovations. Thanks, Scott, for all you do, and for this well-deserved award.
Being a video guy, I had to be impressed with the super-widescreen and the live feed. It looked beautiful. The A/V company, Cramer, is a sponsor of the event and provided the setup. It was really well done.
Dharmesh Shah won for his work in social media and through his company, Hubspot. I first met Dharmesh at a Scott Kirsner dinner event.
After the event, I was talking to @Dharmesh about his followers on Twitter. He has 13,000 followers, and there are another 22,000 following @Hubspot. It's amazing. When I started Avid in 1987, the only way to be a broadcaster was to be licensed by the FCC. Now everyone can have their own broadcast network through Twitter, blogs, YouTube, and other techniques. And it's all free.
Russ Wilcox is also someone I came to know through (you guessed it) Scott Kirsner. Probably at the Nantucket Conference, but now I can't remember. Russ started E-Ink, and later took back the role of CEO and turned it into a huge success as the underlying display technology of the Kindle and other book readers and cellular devices.
It's funny how far a little neworking goes. I got to know Russ, and then later when I got involved in the MIT-Gordon Engineering Leadership Program, Russ agreed to be a mentor to one of the MIT students in the program. And of course, I wouldn't have known Russ if it weren't for Scott Kirsner.

So there's a moral to the story. A little bit of networking can go a long way. And a LOT of networking can change a region. New England is doing a lot more networking, and doing a better job of it. It's making a big difference. Thanks to Mass High Tech for a great evening and a great event.

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October 25, 2009

It Takes a Blue Toyota To Photograph an Orange Tree: How to Capture an Autumn Maple With Curves from Japan

Every year, the tree near our garage explodes in color. And every year, I'm frustrated that I can't quite capture how amazing it is. But this year, I tried using my Blue Toyota Sienna as a reflector, and I used a borrowed Nikon D3x 24 megapixel full frame digital SLR to capture the beauty.

Finally, the car gave that tree the companion it needed to really show off.

Oh, wait. This isn't the Nikon. It's just the iPhone camera. And the old one at that... a measly 2 Mpixels.

I love how the curves of the hood give action to the tree. Every time I just aim a camera at the amazing tree, it seems to hide its beauty. But I like how these work.

Okay, kinda the same, but I just couldn't choose.

I wonder what causes that ripple effect.

A view on the side window. My neighbor's white picket fence peeks through.

Glorious orange.

Oh, I just think this is so cool. Look at the round window bolt cover. Even it has reflection of the tree.

I Photoshopped in the picket fence cause I thought it looked so cool. Not true. This is just how it came out of the camera. (With a smidge of exposure correction.)

Ah, the secrets of Toyota photography go on. It turns out you can make and ugly tree look great too. This wasn't a setup. Was just how the little iPhone camera saw things.

I love the little red leaf stuck in the rear wiper. Also look at how the distortion in the glass near the base of the wiper makes things look fluid.

And now it all looks very pedestrian and not so exciting, like it always seems to do each year. The blue Toyota is in the driveway on the right. The orange tree is in the foregrounc (you knew that.) And the "ugly tree" that was in the rear window is just behind the minivan. Ah, the orange tree has finally been captured. Maybe this spring I'll use the same technique on the Cherry tree, which also has defied great photography.

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October 24, 2009

Four Artists Re-Examine Nature at Provincetown Art Museum: A Video Using Only iPhone Stills

Elissa and I recently attended the opening of an art exhibit in Provincetown. The exhibit was the creation of Susan Lyman, who spent years making it happen. Elissa has taken classes from one of the artists, Vico Fabbris. We have also bought some of Vico's drawings. Vico reverses extinction. He creates his own plants, and gives them a detailed story. Vico was one of four artists that each took a different look at nature. Nathalie Miebach takes careful measurements of nature and uses it to create new forms. In this exhibit, we see 3D art that is in fact a depiction of the weather over some period of time. Also, she used the weather to create a music score. The piano music during her segment is from that score. And Susan Lyman takes driftwood and carves it into life-like wooden forms.

I hadn't planned on making a video, but this event featured three artists discussing their works, and I decided to take a series of stills with the iPhone, and then edit them together. I wanted to capture the energy and excitement of these artiists. The fourth artist, Michael Mazur, died recently, and the show is dedicated to his memory.
Vico Fabbris 
Art critic and Mazur friend Chris Busa talked about Michael Mazur's work.
Nathalie Miebach and her 3D sculptures representing detailed measurements of nature.
Susan Lyman
Closeup of one of Susan's sculptures.

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October 21, 2009

Photos and Notes from MIT Panel Discussion with Ray Kurzweil: The Democratization of Innovation #mitef

I recently had the pleasure of participating in a discussion with Ray Kurzweil about the democratization of innovation. The event was hosted by the MIT Enterprise Forum, and the discussion was moderated by Simeon Simeonov. This post provides some photos from the event, and some notes. I had a front row seat for the first part of the event, where Ray went through his discussion of exponential processes, and what they mean for humanity. These photos were all taken with an iPhone 3G.
The event began with a few remarks from a long time sponsor of the MIT Enterprise Forum,  Hamilton Brook Smith Reynolds   He mentioned that his firm had just won the largest jury award in history on a patent, $1.67 billion. This was meant to impress, and it did. He then gave a shout-out to the patent lawyer who won the case.
And here she is standing to take a bow. (I didn't get her name)
Sim Simeonov then gave the overview of the program, and introduced Ray Kurzweil.
A photo of the Eniac computer. These were not available by mail order. They had a significant carbon footprint.
I kinda jumped when this picture came up. I wasn't expecting it.
Ray used the reading machine for the blind as bookends for his talk. The original machine was the size of a washing machine. Later, he demonstrated a portable unit that is based on a cell phone.
Ray used a series of graphs plotted on a log scale. Any straight line means an exponential growth pattern. This phone industry graph is interesting because the growth in phone calls in 1890 was astronomical, and then "leveled off" to exponential growth, going from about 40 million per day in 1900 to about 400 billion calls per day in 2000. (as I read the graph from the photo)
This graph shows how many years of use it took for major innovations to be used by 1/4 of the US population. It shows that major innovations are spreading to the broad population in much less time than before.
This slide is Ray's "and then the world changes" slide, but he didn't focus on it heavily. In Ray's books, he postulates that advances in electronics, medical scanning, and nanotechnology are all moving on an inexorable exponential curve, and within 40 years technology will be so advanced that it can actually "host" a brain, and become a carrier and propagator of human spirit. In other words, in 40 years or so, the avalanche of technological change will mean that humans will have a choice of how they wish to propagate their spirit and their species. Personally, I believe that DNA has many, many tricks up its sleeve, and won't reveal nearly enough of its secrets to us in 40 years that we could ever consider replacing it. I believe that 40 years from now, stock in DNA-based creatures will be as strong as ever. At the same time, I also agree with Ray's point that exponential growth in multiple areas will lead to technological change that we can barely imagine today.
This graph was the second of two. I didn't capture the first. But they both show the rate of technological change. Ray plotted major paradigm shifts throughout history, and when they occurred. They came out linear on this log plot, which means it is an exponential curve. He then quietly mentioned that people criticized him that he might have picked the shifts that matched his desired curve. So he put up this slide that plots paradigm shifts from 15 sources. Ah, this was an MIT moment. It's a big lecture hall with blackboards, and here is the graph that seems really, really hard to refute. Edward Tufte would be proud.
This one is a really basic graph. We probably did this in 8th grade. Linear vs. exponential graphs. But I learned something new. Ray pointed out that early on in an exponential process, things can appear to be linear. But if you wait a while, the two curves diverge greatly. His point is that technology is usually on an exponential curve, and you need to plan for that, even in the early days. I don't think I'll forget that point.
Ray then pointed out that each individual technology levels off eventually, but then another technology takes its place. Taken together, the exponential growth continues over decades and centuries.
This is an example of a century of growth, but with many different technologies.
Costs drop exponentially.
Bits shipped grows exponentially. (Luckily they don't require any fixed volume, or we'd be in trouble!)
And here we have the computer beginning to match the power of a human brain, at 10 to the 26th calculations per second. (Well, we don't do that, but our brain architecture is so rich that Ray estimates how many raw cycles are needed to match our mental capabilities.)
Ray spoke for about an hour in a very gentle, persuasive tone. He makes his case step by step, and with lots of interesting data behind his points. As an engineer, though, it was fascinating and frightening at the same time. He basically said that we are going to make so much progress, so quickly, that it won't take long before we're faced with fundamental decisions about what does it mean to be alive. Frankly, I'm hoping it will all take way longer than that. Perhaps technology can be enjoyed, more like art, for centuries to come.
Ray ended his talk with a demonstration of his newest invention, a portable reader for the blind. The white device has a camera in it. He aimed it at the printed page. It captured the photo, recognized the text, and began speaking. This got the audience to applaud.

Then, it became clear that Ray likes to drive his point ALL the way home. He aimed it at some Spanish text. It recognized that and spoke it in Spanish. Then he asked it for an English translation, and it was instantly provided. More applause, and very well deserved. It was a very impressive talk, and a great technology demonstration.

After Ray's talk, Sim led a discussion between me, Ray, and the audience, about the future of technology and innovation. It was a very lively discussion. After the event, the discussion continued at the 4th floor bar in the Stata Center.

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